559.Evans, R. G. and Stoddart, G. L., “Producing health, consuming health care.” In Evans, R. G., et al., 1994, op. cit.

560.此外,未参保人员的负担并没有在社会上平均分配。

561.Hay, J. W., Osmond, D. H, and Jacobson, M. A,“Projecting the medical costs of AIDS and ARC in the United States.” Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 1 (1988): 466-485.

与疾病预防控制中心预测的160亿美元相比,这是一个适度的增长。到1999年,美国与艾滋病相关的医疗支出达到69亿美元,由医疗补助、瑞安·怀特艾滋病基金、社会保障和医疗保险支付。联邦政府在1999财政年度还支出了以下费用:

这高于联邦艾滋病支出总额,如下所示:

上述数据不包括私人或国家补贴的治疗、研究、药物开发、病人援助、住院等方面的补贴支出(保险或其他)。

562.Franks, P., Clancy, C. M., and Gold, M. R., “Health insurance and mortality.” Journal of the American Medical Association 270 (1993): 737-741.

然而,在前24个工业化国家中,只有土耳其政府在国民健康成本中所占比例低于美国。挪威95%的医疗费用由政府承担,挪威人的婴儿死亡率是世界上最低的(1994年每1000个婴儿中有4个),预期寿命最高(1993年出生的婴儿预期寿命为78岁)。尽管挪威政府在卫生方面投入了大量资金,但挪威人的生活水平仍然很高,人均国民生产总值每年为26390美元。可比拟美国数据:婴儿死亡率为8‰;预期寿命为77岁;人均国民生产总值为25880美元。这些是世界银行根据世界银行的年度世界发展报告所作的估计。

1990年,美国40%以上的医疗费用由政府承担。

563.Evans, R. G., “Health care as a threat to our health.” Daedalus (Fall 1994):21-42.

564.Lavis, J. N. and Stoddart, G. L., “Can we have too much health care?” Daedalus (Fall 1994): 43-60.

565.Reagan, M. D., The Accidental System: Health Care Policy in America. Boulder:Westview Press, 1999.

566.尽管民意调查显示,到1991年,68%的美国选民说他们“更喜欢加拿大的制度”而不是美国的制度。路易斯·哈里斯和他的同事在1991年11月对这些结果进行了一次民意调查。

567.Jacobs, L. R., Shapiro, R. Y., and Schulman, E. C.,“The polls—poll trends: Medical care in the United States- an update,” Public Opinion Quarterly 57 (1993): 394-427.

568.Ibid.

569.Ibid.

570.Blendon, R. J., Altman, D. E., Benson, J. M., et al., “The implications of the 1992 presidential election for health care reform.” Journal of the American Medical Association 268(1992): 3371-3375.

571.Ginzberg, E., 1996, op. cit. .

572.Sen, A., Development as Freedom. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999.

573.Jones, S., Cohodes, D. M., and Scheil, B., “The risks of ignoring insurance risk management.” Health Affairs (Spring 1994): 108-122; Oliver, T. R. and Dowell, E. B., “Interest groups and health reform: Lessons from California.” Health Affairs (Spring 1994): 120-130; and Rubin, A. J., “Reinvention of health care is key to Clinton overhaul.” Congressional Quarterly(March 13, 1993): 595-600.

574.Freeman, P. and Robbins A., “National health care reform minus public health: A formula for failure.” Journal of Public Health Policy 15 (1994): 261-282.

575.“Warning: Doctors can damage your wealth.” The Economist (October 20, 1990):19-20.

576.Aaron, H. J. and Schwartz, W. B., “The painful prescription: Rationing health care.”The Brookings Institute, Studies in Social Economics Series. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institute,1984; Feldstein, P. J., Health Care Economics. Fourth edition. Albany: Delmar Publishing, 1993.

577.Gordon, L., “Public health is more important than health care.” Journal of Public Health Policy 14 (1993): 261-264.

578.Gordon, R. L., Gerzoff, R. B., and Richards, T. B., “Determinants of U.S. local health department expenditures, 1992 through 1993.” American Journal of Public Health 87 (1997):91-95; Halverson, P. K., Miller, C. A., Fried, B. J, et al., “Performing public health functions:The perceived contribution of public health and other community agencies.” Journal of Health and Human Services Administration (Winter 1996): 288-303; Mays, G. P., Halverson, P. K, and Miller, C. A., “Assessing the performance of local public health systems: A survey of state health agency efforts.” Journal of Public Health Management Practice 4 (1998): 63-78; etc..

579.Osterholm, M. T., “A survey of public health infectious disease surveillance in the United States, 1992,” unpublished data provided by the author.

580.Dowdle, W. R., “The future of the public health laboratory.” Annual Review of Public Health 14 (1993): 649-664.

581.Holland, E. J, Mahanti, R. L., Belongia, E. A., et al., “Ocular involvement in an outbreak of Herpes gladiatorum.” American Journal of Ophthalmology 114 (1992): 680-684.

582.Hedberg, C. W., David, M. J. White, K. E., et al.,“Role of egg consumption in sporadic Salmonella enteriditis and Salmonella typhirium infections in Minnesota.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 167 (1993): 107-111; Hedberg, C. W., White, K. E., Johnson, J. A., et al., “An outbreak of Salmonella enteritidis infection at a fast-food restaurant: Implications for foodhandler-associated transmission.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 164 (1991): 1135-1140;and Hedberg, C. W., Korlath, J. A., D'Aoust, J. Y., et al., “A multistate outbreak of Salmonella javiana and Salmonella oranienburg infections due to consumption of contaminated cheese.”Journal of the American Medical Association 268 (1992): 3203-3207.

583.Hedberg, C. W., Levine, W. C., White, K. E, et al., “An international foodborne outbreak of shigellosis associated with a commercial airline.” Journal of the American Medical Association 268 (1992): 3203-3212; and Wood, R. C., MacDonald, K. L., Osterholm, M. T.,“Campylobacter enteritis outbreaks associated with drinking raw milk during youth activities.”Journal of the American Medical Association 268 (1992): 3228-3230.

584.MacDonald, K. L., Mills, W. A., Wood R. C., et al., “Evolution of clinical and laboratory aspects of antibody tests for detection of hepatitis C virus infection in blood donors and recipients from a low-risk population.” Transfusion 34 (1994): 202-208; and Wood, R. C.,MacDonald, K. L., White, K. E., et al., “Risk factors for lack of detectable antibody following hepatitis B vaccination of Minnesota health care workers.” Journal of the American Medical Association 270 (1993): 2935-2939.

585.Ehresmann, K. R., Hedberg, C. W., Grimm, M. B., et al., “An outbreak of measles at an international sporting event with airborne transmission in a domed stadium.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 171 (1995): 679-683.

586.Institute of Medicine, Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1992.

587.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Addressing Emerging Infectious Disease Threats: A Prevention Strategy for the United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1994. This report was updated in 1998 as Centers for Disease Control Prevention,“Preventing emerging infectious diseases: A strategy for the twenty-first century.”Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47 (RR-15) (September 11, 1998): 1-14.

588.见本书第五章。

589.Homer-Dixon, T. F., “Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases.” International Security 19 (1994): 5-40; Homer-Dixon, T. F., “On the threshold:Environmental changes as causes of acute conflict.” International Security 16 (1991):76-116;Huntington, S. P., The Clash of Civilizations and Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon&Schuster, 1996; Kennedy, P., Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. New York: Vintage, 1994.

See also Fiedler, D. P., “Microbialpolitik: Infectious diseases and international relations.”International Law Review 14 (1998): 2-21; Garrett, L., “The return of infectious diseases.”Foreign Affairs 75 (1996): 66-79; Hammond, A., Which New World? Scenarios for the 21st Century. Washington, D.C.: Shearwater, 1998; Institute of Medicine, Vital Interests in Global Health. Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 1997; etc..

590.许多生物学家发现环境问题与疾病的发生有直接关系,这种联系是由于臭氧层减弱而导致的气候变化。他们说,气候的变化有利于致病的昆虫和藻类的生长。

See: Epstein, P. R., “Climate and health.” Science 285 (1999): 347-348; Garfield, R., “Malaria control in Nicaragua: Social and political influences on disease transmission and control activities.” Lancet 354 (1999): 414-418; Linthicum, K. J., Anyamba, A, Tucker, C. J., et al.,“Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley Fever epidemics in Kenya.” Science 285(1999): 397-398; etc..

591.“Disease fights back.” The Economist (May 20, 1995): 79-81; and MacKenzie, D.,“Can we afford not to track deadly viruses?” New Scientist (May 20, 1995): 4.

592.Working Group on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, Global Microbial Threats in the 1990s. Washington, D.C.: NSTC Committee on International Science, Engineering and Technology (CISET), 1995.

593.Garrett, L., “A call to arms against new infectious diseases.” Newsday (July 26, 1995): A25.

594.Ibid.

595.Skocpol, T., Boomerang. New York: W. W. Norton, 1996.

596.该计划的基本策略是要求所有美国雇主为员工提供医疗保险。小企业、失业者和自营职业者将获得联邦补贴,以抵消他们的保险费用。保险将由区域卫生联盟购买,该联盟由医疗保健提供者、卫生保健组织、医生等组成。这些联盟将以社区为基础,由董事会管理,董事会成员包括政府、公民和雇主的代表。这些联盟将协商医院和医生的报销比例,并为这些基金制定当地的质量标准。

597.See: “Got it? An OMB version of a new health-care system.” Medical World News(September, 1993): 21; “Health-care debate takes off.” Congressional Quarterly Almanac (1993):335-347; Johnson, H., 1994, op. cit.; and Peterson, M. A., “How health policy information is used in Congress.” In Mann, J. E. and Ornstein, N. J., editors, How Congress Shapes Health Policy. Washington, D.C. Brookings Institute Press, 1995.

598.“Appropriations process tough on public health.” The Nation's Health (August 1995): 1; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “CDC's national profile of local boards of health, September 1997.” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47 (1997): 573-574; Gordon,R. L., Baker, E. L, Roper, W. L., et al., “Prevention and the reforming U.S. health care system:Changing roles of responsibilities for public health.” Annual Review of Public Health 17 (1996):489-509; etc..

599.Carlson, M., “Another dose of Harry and Louise.” Time magazine (November 4,1997): 34; and Ellis, D., “Band-aids to patch up health care.” Time magazine (February 17,1992): 20-22.

600.Derthick, M., “Whither federalism?” The Future of the Public Sector 2 (June 1996):1-4. Published by the Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

601.Meacham J., “Defiance in the Sun Belt. Newsweek (April 24, 1995): 33.

602.Callahan, D., 1998, op. cit.

603.Blumenthal, D., “Health care reform at the close of the twentieth century.” New England Journal of Medicine 340 (1999): 1916-1920.

604.1994年对俄克拉荷马人的一项调查显示,只有那些有强烈健康需求的公民才倾向于反对全民健康等同于大政府的观点,这是不好的。那些缺乏医疗保险的俄克拉荷马州穷人更倾向于全民医疗。然而,大多数人发现他们自己的健康需求在1994年得到了很好的满足,他们认为没有必要支持大政府。

605.Budetti, P. P, “Health reform for the 2lst century?” Journal of the American Medical Association 277 (1997): 193-198; and Skolnick, A. A., “Democrats drop universal coverage.”Journal of the American Medical Association 276 (1996): 931.

606.Mullan, F., “Federal public health, semi-reinvented.” American Journal of Public Health 87 (1997): 21-24.

607.Pear, R., “More Americans were uninsured in 1998, U.S. says.” New York Times(October 4, 1999): Al.

608.Kuttner, R., “The American health care system.” New England Journal of Medicine 340 (1999): 248-252.

609.Marquis, M. S. and Long, S. H., “Federalism and health system reform.” Journal of the American Medical Association 278 (1997): 514-517.

610.Gordon, R. L., Baker, E. L., Roper, W. L., et al., “Prevention and the reforming U.S. health care system: Changing roles and responsibilities for public health.” Annual Review of Public Health 17 (1996): 489-509; Lasker, R. D., Medicine and Public Health: The Power of Collaboration. New York: Academy of Medicine, 1997; Lasker R. D., Abramson, D. M.,and Freedman, G. R., Pocket Guide to Cases of Medicine and Public Health Collaboration. New York: Academy of Medicine, 1998; Loeppke, R. R.,“Prevention and managed care: The next generation.” Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine 37 (1995): 558-562; etc..

611.Johnson, H., 1994, op. cit.

612.Ibid.

613.关于这起事件的描述,参见Ayers, B. D., “In California uncertainty chills illegal aliens.”New York Times (November 21, 1994): A10; Cheevers, J., “County seeks private takeover of clinics.” Los Angeles Times (August 18, 1995): B1; Church, G. J., “Teaching hospitals in crisis.” Time magazine (July 17, 1995): 40-43; Clark, F., “Maybe, the county's sky is falling.” LACMA Physician (August 14, 1995):16-24; Garrett, L., “LA. hemorrhage.” Newsday (September 12, 1995): A12;等。

614.Reed, S. R., Chief Administrative Officer, 1995-96 Proposed County Budget. Memo to the Board of Supervisors of the County of Los Angeles, June 20, 1995.

615.UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. At Risk: Los Angeles County, the Health of its People and its Health System. A briefng document prepared for the Health and Mental Health Advocacy Coalition, October 21, 1994.

另一个问题是,在20世纪90年代,洛杉矶为他们的工人提供医疗保险的雇主不到一半。事实上,洛杉矶所有没有医疗保险的人中有87%是有就业的。

616.UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, 1994, op. cit.

617.1995年9月,作者的访谈记录。除特别引用外,洛杉矶部分的所有引文均来自作者访谈。

618.事实上,拉丁美洲和南加州大学的医疗中心在最近的洛杉矶地震中已经遭受了相当大的破坏,预计修复工作将花费数百万美元。

619.美国南加州大学医学教授史蒂夫·阿斯克说,将洛杉矶郡的医疗保健状况与他在厄瓜多尔当医生的经历相比较:“就像华尔街国际货币基金组织说政府必须平衡预算一样,洛杉矶郡也要平衡预算。与厄瓜多尔一样,在削减预算的时候公共卫生总是首当其冲。联邦政府和州政府和20世纪80年代的国际捐赠者一样,宣扬着强烈的爱,但似乎不太可能出手相救。”

620.根据郡预算报告,卫生部门1990年的收入细分如下:13.1%来自郡税;14.0%来自各种来源的特别补助金;23.9%来自联邦政府;48.9%来自州政府。但是到了1994年至1995年,情况发生了巨大的变化:郡税只贡献了6.25%,外部补助金占了7.65%;州政府的贡献下降到了21.5%;联邦政府的资金占了卫生部门收入的64.5%。州和郡捐款的急剧下降主要是由于南加州航空航天业几乎完全崩溃而导致的严重衰退。郡医院遭受了额外的打击,因为1991年之后,他们失去了大量的加利福尼亚州医疗援助计划客户和公共设施。由于1991年之前,政府对医疗机构的补偿非常低,私人医生和医院拒绝为加利福尼亚州医疗援助患者提供护理。然而,1991年之后,加州提高了报销率,使得私立医院和医疗保健组织积极招募国家资助的病人。1991年以前,在拉丁美洲和南加州大学医疗中心和其他公立医院接受治疗的患者中,有一半得到了加利福尼亚州医疗援助补偿,这并不是很大的补偿,但这是有意义的。到1995年,这些病人大多转移到私营部门,拉丁美洲和南加州大学的病人绝大多数没有保险。

See: Friedman, E., “California public hospitals: The buck has stopped.” Journal of the American Medical Association 277 (1997): 577-581.

621.但雅罗斯拉夫斯基对他指责的第二个目标—威尔逊州长和共和党控制的州议会—仍然特别的蔑视。他们一起,不停地阻止所有试图拯救该郡的努力,要么征收烟酒税,或者从洛杉矶地铁建设基金中挪用了7500万美元。

然而,雅罗斯拉夫斯基党的大多数成员,包括自由党领袖格洛丽亚·莫利纳在内,都反对这两种获取收入的途径。洛杉矶拥有全美最糟糕的大城市公共交通系统,它急于完成耗资数十亿美元的地铁系统。强大的酒业和烟草业也努力游说,成功地将加州的所谓罪恶税保持在全国最低水平。

在如何处理洛杉矶县的公共卫生危机问题上,加州民主党内部没有达成一致意见。州议会中的一些人希望一位菲利克斯·罗哈廷式的企业高管来领导一个控制委员会,类似科赫政府时期拯救纽约市的那个高管,从监管者手中夺回所有郡财政的控制权。

See: Seley, J., “The state withers away.” LA Weekly (August 18, 1995): 31.

622.对1994年至1996年在洛杉矶病人中发现的结核菌菌株进行的基因分析表明,大多数病例均涉及在该郡无家可归者中传播的新感染者,特别是贫民区男性。

See: Barnes, P. F., Yang, Z., Preston-Martin, S., et al., “Patterns of tuberculosis transmission in central Los Angeles.” Journal of the Medical Association 278 (1997): 1159-1163.

623.Disease Control Programs, 1992 Communicable Disease Morbidity Report. County of Los Angeles Department of Health Services, 1993; and Fanin, S., Report: Toward the Future of Disease Control in Los Angeles County. Memo to Mark Finucane, Department of Health Services,Los Angeles County, April 10, 1996.

624.资料来源于怀特纪念医院首席执行官贝丝·扎卡里,1995年。

625.Halfon, N., Wood, D. L., Valdez, B., et al., “Medicaid enrollment and health services access by Latino children in inner-city Los Angeles.” Journal of the American Medical Association 277 (1997): 636-641.

626.Commonwealth Fund. U.S. Minority Health: A Chartbook. New York: Commonwealth Fund, 1999.

基金提到以下情况:

在美国18岁以上的所有拉美裔人中,46%没有正规医生(相比之下,非裔是39%和白人是26%)。

53%的拉美裔人把公立医院急诊室作为他们主要的医疗保健来源(相比之下,非裔是47%和白人是30%)。

56%的拉美裔没有任何形式的医疗保险(亚裔是48%,非裔是38%,白人是35%)。在没有保险的拉美裔中,44%非美国公民,16%出生在美国。

627.美国工薪阶层健康保险未来专责小组,“无福利工作:西班牙裔美国人面临的健康保险危机”,纽约:联邦基金,2000年。

628.当斯威尼成为美国最大的劳工联合会负责人时,克林顿无疑松了一口气,因为1995年他听取了当时的服务雇员国际联盟领导人的意见。

629.Department of Health Services, Medicaid Demonstration Project for Los Angeles County. Los Angeles: Department of Health Services, 1996.

630.1999年7月29日,加州新当选州长、民主党人格雷·戴维斯与美国上诉法院达成协议,宣布第187号提案的大部分条款无效。

631.在示范项目的头几个月里,情况发生了变化。国家的最高卫生领导人辞职了。成千上万的员工要么被解雇,要么因为害怕裁员而辞职,要么被调到地位较低、薪酬较低的职位。到1995年12月,卫生服务部失去了6%的雇员,又裁减了15%到20%。年工资减少了1.38亿美元。士气崩溃了,病人的护理受到了影响。

632.纽约市市长朱利安尼正试图出售该市的公立医院,将对穷人的照顾转移到私营部门。到2000年,他仍努力为老化、破旧的设施寻找买家,但没有成功。

633.Reed, S. R., 1996-97 Proposed County Budget. Report for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, April 25, 1996.

里德的所有激进建议都在1996年10月1日示范项目一周年前实施了。它们只是通往长期偿付能力阶梯上的一个痛苦的一步。到1997年年中,又有16家社区卫生院被卖掉,这个庞大的郡只有22家诊所和5家医院了。

里德1996—1997年的拟议预算使未来看起来不祥。即使有了白宫的救助和如此多的大规模削减,洛杉矶仍然面临着持续的债务危机,这源于经济学家所称的“结构性缺口”—通胀调整后的成本与实际房地产税收入之间的差距。加州的差距是由永久性的收入不足造成的,这是13号提议的历史遗留问题。预算办公室估计1996年会超支10亿美元。

我们再次建议,里德警告称,财政上最明智的做法与实际操作可行的做法之间的折中方案,最为恰当。“我们预测,在未来几年里,一般郡的收入几乎没有增加,而且我们很可能会经历收入下降,特别是在联邦政府层面。”同上

634.例如,20年前,当该郡只有700万居民时,有100名医生在工作,他们是当地公共卫生官员,负责发现所在地区的疾病问题。1996年,这个人口多得多的郡只有14名这样的地区卫生官员。

根据国土安全部的文件,在1995年10月之后,对公众健康的影响在其他地区也越来越严重。其中最令人担忧的是,与1995年1月相比,性病门诊就诊人数锐减55.8%,结核病门诊就诊人数下降68%,儿童接种疫苗就诊人数下降58.2%。美国国土安全部5月13日的一份备忘录说:“免疫计划估计,我们从免疫诊所每年约25%的出生人口下降到10%的低水平。”

此外,备忘录还说:“今年报告的结核病新病例数下降了44%。这不太可能是因为新发结核病病例的实际减少,但可能反映了诊断延迟、病例确认时间滞后,或是患者注意力的延迟。长期的影响将是更多的感染和更多的疾病。”

635.Cornwell, E. E., et al., 1996, op. cit.

636.Ginzberg, E., 1996, op. cit.; Glied, S., Sparer, M., and Brown, L., “Comment:Containing state health care expenditures—the competition VS. regulation debate.” American Journal of Public Health 85 (1995): 1347-1349; and ,Reagan, M. D., 1999, op. cit.

637.最大的政府医疗机构是位于西洛杉矶的大型退伍军人管理机构。弗吉尼亚大学的建筑群使韦斯特伍德的所有其他建筑相形见绌,是邻近加州大学洛杉矶分校的主要教学和研究资源。1999年,美国卫生和公共服务部撤销了美国国立卫生研究院在洛杉矶弗吉尼亚综合医院资助的1000多个临床研究项目,发现了在使用人体研究对象方面存在的系统性伦理违规和不当行为。这对该郡、加州大学洛杉矶分校和弗吉尼亚大学都是一个沉重的打击。