An Inconvenient Truth

穆罕默德·尤努斯/Muhammad Yunus

穆罕默德·尤努斯（1940—），孟加拉穷人银行家、经济学家、格拉明银行（Grameen Bank，又称孟加拉乡村银行）创始人。曾留学美国，获经济学硕士和博士学位。回国后执教于吉大港大学，创办格拉明银行。该银行开创和发展了“微额贷款”的服务，专门提供给因贫穷而无法获得传统银行贷款的创业者，因此使数百万人受益，为消除世界贫困做出了重要贡献。

尊敬的陛下，皇室成员，挪威诺贝尔委员会的诸位委员们，以及在座的各位女士和先生们：

今天我带着一个目标站在这里，这是一个我已经为之奋斗多年的目标，我一直在祈祷上帝，希望他能为我指点迷津，让我很好地实现它。

有时候，未来会像一位不速之客敲响我们的大门，为我们带来宝贵而又令人痛苦的远景。119年前，一个富裕的发明家在他去世之前读到了自己的讣告，这是一个误出版的讣告。当时，一家报社误认为这位发明家刚刚去世，便对他一生的工作做了评判，并因为他发明了火药而不公平地把他称为“死亡商人”。这位发明家被报纸上的谴责震撼了，于是他做出了人生的抉择——要为和平事业服务到底。

七年后，阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔设立了这个奖项，以及其他以他的名字命名的奖项。

在七年前的明天，我在一份判决中读到了自己的政治讣告，在我看来，那是一份恶劣且错误的陈述。那份不受欢迎的判决虽然令人痛苦，但同时也为我带来了宝贵的财富，那就是让我获得了一个机会——寻找新的方式来追求我的目标的机会。

没想到，这一追求使我今天站在了这里。虽然我担心我所说的话是否适合今天这个场合，但是我祈求此时我心中的感受能明确地传达出来，而那些听到了我声音的人们会说：“我们必须采取行动。”

我们人类正面临着紧急情况——我们的人类文明受到了威胁，即便我们聚集于此，也无法化解这一威胁对我们的文明所带来的毁灭性的潜在打击。但是，我们并不是看不到希望：我们有能力解决这一危机，避免最坏的情况出现，尽管无法完全地解决这一问题，但只要我们大胆、果断而迅速地采取行动，就有希望。

今天，我们又把七千万吨的温室气体排放到地球周围那薄薄的大气层中，就好像整个地球就是一个开放的下水道。明天，我们又将排放更多的污染物，它们累积的浓度越来越大，凝聚的热量也越来越多。其结果就是，地球开始发烧，而且温度一路飙升。专家告诉我们，这种破坏不会自己愈合。面对这一结果，征求各方意见得到的一致结论是，我们从根本上出了问题。

在过去的几个月里，很多迹象表明，我们的世界正在失控。由于大规模的干旱和冰川融化，北美洲和南美洲的主要城市以及亚洲和澳大利亚几乎断水。绝望的农民正在失去生计。北极和地势低洼的太平洋岛屿上的人们正计划撤离曾经的家园。史无前例的野外大火已迫使50万人逃离家园，造成了全国性的紧急情况，当地政府几乎崩溃。受气候影响的难民迁移到另一个与之有不同文化、宗教和传统的地区，这就增加了潜在冲突的可能性。在太平洋和大西洋发生的更强的风暴威胁着整个城市的生存。在南亚、墨西哥和18个非洲国家的特大洪水中，数百万人流离失所。随着温度的极端上升，不计其数的人失去生命。我们鲁莽地燃烧和砍伐森林，使得越来越多的物种灭绝。我们赖以生存的生态系统正在被破坏并消逝。

我们从来没有蓄意制造这些破坏，正如诺贝尔从未打算把炸药用于发动战争一样。他原本希望他的发明能促进人类的进步。当我们开始燃烧大量的煤、石油和甲烷时，我们的目标也是相同的，都想使人类社会向前发展。

70年以后，我的老师罗杰·芮维和他的同事戴夫·基林开始记载大气中二氧化碳的含量，并发现数字每天都有所增加，与大多数其他形式的污染物不同的是，二氧化碳是无形无味的，这就会使人们看不到真相，无法感受他们正在对气候造成怎样的侵害。此外，现在威胁我们的灾难是空前的——我们常常认为那些空前的东西不可能发生！

从这个奖项开始授予至今的这些年，人类与地球的整个关系已经发生了根本的转变。还有一点，就是我们已经基本上忽视了多年来我们的所作所为对环境造成的影响。

二十多年前，科学家曾计算出，核战争可能会使大量的碎片和烟雾投放到空气中，从而阻碍给予生命的阳光透过大气层，造成“核冬天”。他们雄辩的警告有助于激励世界人民的决心，停止核军备竞赛。

今天的科学正警告我们，如果我们不迅速减少污染，全球将会变暖，我们将面临危险的永久性的“碳夏天”。

我们必须像之前调动战备品那样迅速激发起全人类的紧迫感，来共同解决这一难题。威胁呼吁勇气，呼吁慷慨，呼吁我们集合全体人民的力量，各个阶层、各种条件下的公民的力量，准备抵抗这种威胁。我们的敌人在过去的预测中，认为自由的人们不会站起来反抗，殊不知，他们犯了致命的错误。

如今，来自气候方面的危机正在威胁着我们，这种威胁是那么的真实，并且在不断升级，其影响范围极其广泛。无视这一挑战而遭受的惩罚是巨大的，而惩罚还会不断地增长，某些程度上来说，这种惩罚将是不可承受的和不可恢复的。现在，为时还不晚，我们仍然有选择我们命运的权利。接下来的问题只有一个，那就是：我们是否有积极并及时行动的意愿？或者说我们是否仍然被囚禁在危险的幻想中？

圣雄甘地唤醒了地球上最大的民主，并建立了全民共同的决心，即他所说的“非暴力抵抗及不合作主义”或者“真理力量”。

真相能够使我们大家团结起来，并发挥它的桥梁作用，拉近人们之间的距离，使人们由“我”改称“我们”，从而为实现共同的努力和共同的责任创造基础。

有一句非洲谚语是这么说的：“如果你想走得快，那么请独自上路；如果你想走得远，就请结伴而行。”我们需要走得更远，更快。

我们必须摒弃那些只依赖个别的、孤立的、私人的解决问题的想法。它们确实会起到作用，但是，如果没有集体的力量，我们就无法走得足够远。与此同时，我们必须确保在调动全球力量的过程当中，任何人都不被束缚在某些思想和所谓的“主义”中。

这意味着我们采用的原则、价值观、法律和条约，必须能够释放社会各个阶层的创造力，并且能够接受那些各方同时自发产生的回应。

这种新的意识要求扩大全人类固有的潜力。拉各斯或孟买或蒙得维的亚的创新者可能会设计新的方式来利用太阳能，或者发明一种无碳引擎。我们必须确保世界各地的企业家和发明家都有机会改变世界。

当我们为了一个美好的目标团结起来时，其所释放的精神力量可以改变我们每一个人。在20世纪40年代，战胜全球法西斯主义的那一代人会发现，就在日益战胜那些可怕的挑战同时，他们也获得了道义上的权威，他们依靠长远的眼光推出了马歇尔计划，成立了联合国；并在全球合作的新阶段，预见到了统一的欧洲，并促进德国、日本、意大利和世界大部分地区民主的兴起与繁荣。他们其中一个富有远见的领导者说：“现在我们要让星辰，而非来往船只的灯光指引我们前进。”

在那场战争的前一年，你们把这项和平奖颁给了那个来自我家乡的人——迦太基·田纳西。富兰克林·罗斯福称科德尔·赫尔为“联合国之父”。赫尔一直是我父亲心中的英雄，在他的激励和启发下，父亲追随他到了国会和美国国会参议院并投身于世界和平和全球合作的事业。

我的父母经常提起赫尔，言语中充满了对他的崇敬和钦佩。八个星期前，当你们宣布这个奖项时，让我感触最深的是当我看到家乡报纸的头条上赫然写着我获得了与科德尔·赫尔相同的那个奖项，我想到如果我的父亲和母亲还活着，他们一定感慨万千。

正如赫尔的同代人发现日益崛起的道德权威正在解决由法西斯主义造成的世界危机那样，我们也会找到能够解决气候危机的大好机会。在汉语和日语中所用的词汇——“危机”都是一个由两个字所组成的词语，第一个字，即“危”字，代表“危险”；第二个字，为“机”字，代表“机会”。通过正视和消除危险的气候危机，我们就能获得树立道义权威的机会，而这也将大大增加我们自身的能力，从而用以解决长期以来被人们忽视的其他危机。

我们必须明白气候危机与贫困、饥荒、艾滋病以及其他传染病等之间的联系。正因为这些问题的出现是有联系的，所以，问题本身便是最好的解决方案。我们首先必须要共同拯救全球环境，而这也是国际社会的主要组织原则。

十五年前，我在巴西里约热内卢的“地球峰会”上曾经提出过同样的观点。十年前，我在日本京都市也提及过。这个星期，我将敦促巴厘岛的与会代表采取大胆的行动，通过条约的形式，建立全球第一个关于排放物及其如何利用的交易市场，从而有效地分配资源，以找到最有效的方法来迅速减少污染。这个条约应该被批准，并于2010年之前在世界各地生效。我们对环境做出反应的速度必须加快，以赶上危机本身发展的速度。

各国元首们应当在明年年初进行会面，回顾巴厘岛所取得的成就，并责无旁贷地解决这一危机。此外，这些国家元首们应该每隔三个月会面商讨，直至该条约圆满完成。考虑到环境所面临的压力，我们做出这样的要求并不过分。

我们还需要暂停建设任何新的燃烧煤炭的发电设施，因为这样的设施不能安全有效地控制二氧化碳的排放和对其进行储存。最重要的是，我们需要对二氧化碳制定价格——通过对二氧化碳征税（这些税款最终会回到人民手里），并根据每个国家不同的法律，逐步将征税的负担从就业方面转移到污染方面。这是目前加速解决这一危机的最有效和最简单的方法。

世界需要联合起来，尤其是那些维持世界平衡的大国联盟。欧洲和日本近几年已经开始采取行动来迎接挑战，还有澳大利亚的新政府，已经把解决气候危机作为它的首要任务。

虽然这项决定刚刚开始，但如果我们努力做到我们必须做的，这也是充满光明与希望的未来的开始。任何一个办法，如果不付出努力和代价是不会起作用的。我们要认识到，如果我们想弥补过去，想树立起道德权威，那么我们就必须面对以下严峻的事实：

前面的路是很艰难的。我们目前认为的那些可行的办法是远远不够的，我们必须做的事实际上还有很多。我们现在正处于关键的十字路口上，我们的前方有两种发展可能，每一种都极有可能发展成为现实。我们要清晰地区分这两种可能的结果，从而做出最终的选择，而且环境的紧迫性也使我们不得不立刻做出正确的选择！

我们的下一代决定着未来的命运，我们需要立刻行动，改变以前的政策方针，挽起手来，大声说：我们有一个共同的目标，我们力量是强大的，我们要立刻行动起来！

谢谢大家！

Your Majesties， Your Royal Highnesses， Honorable members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee， Excellencies， Ladies and Gentlemen，

I have a purpose here today. It is a purpose I have tried to serve for many years.I have prayed that God would show me a way to accomplish it.

Sometimes， without warning， the future knocks on our door with a precious and painful vision of what might be. One hundred and nineteen years ago， a wealthy inventor read his own obituary， mistakenly published years before his death.Wrongly believing the inventor had just died， a newspaper printed a harsh judgment of his life's work， unfairly labeling him "The Merchant of Death" because of his invention—dynamite.Shaken by this condemnation， the inventor made a fateful choice to serve the cause of peace.

Seven years later， Alfred Nobel created this prize and the others that bear his name.

Seven years ago tomorrow， I read my own political obituary in a judgment that seemed to me harsh and mistaken—if not premature. But that unwelcome verdict also brought a precious if painful gift：an opportunity to search for fresh new ways to serve my purpose.

Unexpectedly， that quest has brought me here. Even though I fear my words cannot match this moment， I pray what I am feeling in my heart will be communicated clearly enough that those who hear me will say， "We must act."

We， the human species， are confronting a planetary emergency—a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential even as we gather here. But there is hopeful news as well：we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst—though not all of its consequences， if we act boldly， decisively and quickly.

So today， we dumped another 70 million tons of global-warming pollution into the thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet， as if it were an open sewer. And tomorrow， we will dump a slightly larger amount， with the cumulative concentrations now trapping more and more heat from the sun.As a result， the earth has a fever.And the fever is rising.The experts have told us it is not a passing affliction that will heal by itself.We askedfor a second opinion.And a third.And a fourth.And the consistent conclusion， restated with increasing alarm， is that something basic is wrong.

In the last few months， it has been harder and harder to misinterpret the signs that our world is spinning out of kilter. Major cities in North and South America， Asia and Australia are nearly out of water due to massive droughts and melting glaciers.Desperate farmers are losing their livelihoods.Peoples in the frozen Arctic and on low-lying Pacific islands are planning evacuations of places they have long called home.Unprecedented wildfires have forced a half million people from their homes in one country and caused a national emergency that almost brought down the government in another.Climate refugees have migrated into areas already inhabited by people with different cultures， religions， and traditions， increasing the potential for conflict.Stronger storms in the Pacific and Atlantic have threatened whole cities.Millions have been displaced by massive flooding in South Asia， Mexico， and 18 countries in Africa.As temperature extremes have increased， tens of thousands have lost their lives.We are recklessly burning and clearing our forests and driving more and more species into extinction.The very web of life on which we depend is being ripped and frayed.

We never intended to cause all this destruction， just as Alfred Nobel never intended that dynamite be used for waging war. He had hoped his invention would promote human progress.We shared that same worthy goal when we began burning massive quantities of coal， then oil and methane.

Seventy years later， my teacher， Roger Revelle， and his colleague， Dave Keeling， began to precisely document the increasing CO 2 levels day by day. But unlike most other forms of pollution， CO 2 is invisible， tasteless， and odorless—which has helped keep the truth about what it is doing to our climate out of sight and out of mind.Moreover， the catastrophe now threatening us is unprecedented—and we often confuse the unprecedented with the improbable.

In the years since this prize was first awarded， the entire relationship between humankind and the earth has been radically transformed. And still， we have remained largely oblivious to the impact of our cumulative actions.

More than two decades ago， scientists calculated that nuclear war could throw so much debris and smoke into the air that it would block life—giving sunlight from our atmosphere， causing a "nuclear winter." Their eloquent warnings here in Oslo helped galvanize the world's resolve to halt the nuclear arms race.

Now science is warning us that if we do not quickly reduce the global warming pollution that is trapping so much of the heat our planet normally radiates back out of the atmosphere， we are in danger of creating a permanent "carbon summer".

We must quickly mobilize our civilization with the urgency and resolve that has previously been seen only when nations mobilized for war. They were calls upon the courage， generosity and strength of entire peoples， citizens of every class and condition who were ready to stand against the threat once asked to do so.Our enemies in those times calculated that free people would not rise to the challenge；they were， of course， catastrophically wrong.

Now comes the threat of climate crisis—a threat that is real， rising， imminent， and universal. Once again， it is the 11th hour.The penalties for ignoring this challenge are immense and growing， and at some near point would be unsustainable and unrecoverable.For now we still have the power to choose our fate， and the remaining question is only this：Have we the will to act vigorously and in time， or will we remain imprisoned by a dangerous illusion？

Mahatma Gandhi awakened the largest democracy on earth and forged a shared resolve with what he called "Satyagraha"—or "truth force".

Truth also has the power to unite us and bridge the distance between "me" and "we"， creating the basis for common effort and shared responsibility.

There is an African proverb that says， "If you want to go quickly， go alone. If you want to go far， go together." We need to go far， quickly.

We must abandon the conceit that individual， isolated， privateactions are the answer. They can and do help.But they will not take us far enough without collective action.At the same time， we must ensure that in mobilizing globally， we do not invite the establishment of ideological conformity and a new lock-step "ism".

That means adopting principles， values， laws， and treaties that release creativity and initiative at every level of society in multifold responses originating concurrently and spontaneously.

This new consciousness requires expanding the possibilities inherent in all humanity. The innovators who will devise a new way to harness the sun's energy for pennies or invent an engine that's carbon negative may live in Lagos or Mumbai or Montevideo.We must ensure that entrepreneurs and inventors everywhere on the globe have the chance to change the world.

When we unite for a moral purpose that is manifestly good and true， the spiritual energy unleashed can transform us. The generation that defeated fascism throughout the world in the 1940s found， in rising to meet their awesome challenge， that they had gained the moral authority and long-term vision to launch the Marshall Plan， the United Nations， and a new level of global cooperation and foresight that unified Europe and facilitated the emergence of democracy and prosperity in Germany， Japan， Italy and much of the world.One of their visionary leaders said， "It is time we steered by the stars and not by the lights of every passing ship".

In the last year of that war， you gave the Peace Prize to a man from my hometown of 2000 people， Carthage， Tennessee. Cordell Hull was described by Franklin Roosevelt as the "Father of the United Nations".He was an inspiration and hero to my own father， who followed Hull in the Congress and the U.S.Senate and in his commitment to world peace and global cooperation.

My parents spoke often of Hull， always in tones of reverence and admiration. Eight weeks ago， when you announced this prize， the deepest emotion I felt was when I saw the headline in my hometown paper that simply noted I had won the same prize that Cordell Hull had won.In that moment， I knew what my father and mother would have felt were they alive.

Just as Hull's generation found moral authority in rising to solve the world crisis caused by fascism， so too can we find our greatest opportunity in rising to solve the climate crisis. In the Kanji characters used in both Chinese and Japanese， "crisis" is written with two symbols， the first meaning "danger"， the second "opportunity".By facing and removing the danger of the climate crisis， we have the opportunity to gain the moral authority and vision to vastly increase our own capacity to solve other crises that have been too long ignored.

We must understand the connections between the climate crisis and the afflictions of poverty， hunger， HIV-Aids and other pandemics. As these problems are linked， so too must be theirsolutions.We must begin by making the common rescue of the global environment the central organizing principle of the world community.

Fifteen years ago， I made that case at the "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro. Ten years ago， I presented it in Kyoto.This week， I will urge the delegates in Bali to adopt a bold mandate for a treaty that establishes a universal global cap on emissions and uses the market in emissions trading to efficiently allocate resources to the most effective opportunities for speedy reductions.

Heads of state should meet early next year to review what was accomplished in Bali and take personal responsibility for addressing this crisis. It is not unreasonable to ask， given the gravity of our circumstances， that these heads of state meet every three months until the treaty is completed.

We also need a moratorium on the construction of any new generating facility that burns coal without the capacity to safely trap and store carbon dioxide. And most important of all， we need to put a price on carbon—with a CO 2 tax that is then rebated back to the people， progressively， according to the laws of each nation， in ways that shift the burden of taxation from employment to pollution.This is by far the most effective and simplest way to accelerate solutions to this crisis.

The world needs an alliance—especially of those nations that weigh heaviest in the scales where earth is in the balance. I saluteEurope and Japan for the steps they've taken in recent years to meet the challenge， and the new government in Australia， which has made solving the climate crisis its first priority.

…

These are the last few years of decision， but they can be the first years of a bright and hopeful future if we do what we must. No one should believe a solution will be found without effort， without cost， without change.Let us acknowledge that if we wish to redeem squandered time and speak again with moral authority， then these are the hard truths：

The way ahead is difficult. The outer boundary of what we currently believe is feasible is still far short of what we actually must do.We are standing at the most fateful fork in that path.So I want to end as I began， with a vision of two futures—each a palpable possibility—and with a prayer that we will see with vivid clarity the necessity of choosing between those two futures， and the urgency of making the right choice now.

The young people will knock the door of the future. So let us renew it， and say together："We have a purpose.We are many.For this purpose we will rise， and we will act".

Thank you！